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This is How The E-Learning Future Can Actually Look Like

April 6, 2022 by Eva Keiffenheim

Welcome to the post-pandemic reality of online learning.

The Future of E-Learning (Source: Canva)

Ten years from now, we’ll grimace at how we used to learn. While the past years have accelerated change, we’re still in the early days of a global learning revolution.

In the next six years, analysts expect the global e-learning market to double, from $253 billion now to $522 billion in 2027.

I’ve been working in education and learning for a decade, and this article is based on recent conversations with EdTech founders, online learners, and research from industry analytics, VC reports, and scenario predictions.

This article has three sections:

  1. The rise of outcome-based education
  2. The evolution of learning management systems
  3. The integration of immersive technologies

Read the whole thing, or jump to the part most relevant for you. Either way, you’ll have a better understanding of how you might learn in 2030.


1) The rise of outcome-based education

In 2015, policy analyst Kevin Carey predicted the end of universities. His key argument: colleges are expensive and ineffective.

Carey mentioned a study with 2,300 undergrad students at 24 institutions across the US. After four college years, 45% of the students had made no statistically significant progress in a range of skills.

Are trillions of student loan debts for higher ed worth it?

Carey, among others, anticipated the rise of MOOCs (massive open online courses). A decade ago, people believed massive open online courses would revolutionize higher ed and potentially even replace universities.

And while online platforms such as EdX and Udemy removed the geographical and financial barriers to learning, we now know that copying traditional curricula and pasting them into online videos doesn’t solve the underlying learning problem.

Data from Harvard University and MIT revealed three devastating data points against MOOCs:

  • Completion rates. Only three to four per cent complete self-paced courses, a rate that hasn’t improved in the past seven years.
  • Retention. Only seven per cent of MOOC learners start another course after their first year.
  • Accessibility. While MOOCs promised to bring high-quality education to all corners of the world, only 1.43 per cent come from countries classified as “low” on the Human Development Index.

MOOCs don’t work, but what does the future hold instead?

Cohort-based courses for outcome-focused learning experiences

In Cohort Based Courses, so-called CBCs, a student group moves at the same pace through the same curriculum.

Here are six features that distinguish CBCs from MOOCs and improve learners’ outcomes:

  1. Interactive live sessions instead of listening to self-paced monologues.
  2. Real-time feedback on learning progress instead of missing accountability.
  3. Assignments linked to your desired skill instead of no real outcome.
  4. Structured access to a subject-specific community instead of inactive support forums.
  5. No room for bullshit; instructors focus on the how instead of the why.
  6. Regular touch points with instructors and coaches to help learners follow through when things get hard.

Moreover, cohort-based courses can adjust their curricula faster than any university ever will. In fast-moving environments, technology or design offers an attractive alternative that can ensure employment.

Take the example of 10K Designers. They teach students state-of-the-art design skills for $1000 while working with recruiters from companies to ensure students are learning the relevant skills to land jobs.

This brings us to the second evolvement in outcome-focused education:

Learning paths to maximize your return on time investment

Lifelong learning will enable employees to keep thriving at their work. Companies will bridge the skill gap through enabling learning environments.

Jeff Maggioncalda, CEO of Coursera, writes in the most recent impact report that offering flexible pathways to skills and credentials that prepare people for remote and digital jobs can pave the way for talent to rise from anywhere in the world.

But what do flexible pathways to skills actually mean?

Imagine every skill as a tree, comprised of several branches. Each brunch has even smaller units. You need all branches to master a specific skill.

Let’s take an example from one of my favourite writers Danny Forest:

Source: Danny Forest in “Use skill trees to learn new skills in a fun and painless way.”

Similarly, eLearning providers will offer a comprehensive overview of neccessary subskills and routes to acquire them, similar to Tim Ferriss’ DSSS model:

  • Deconstruction: What are the minimal learnable units to start with?
  • Selection: What are the necessary blocks to master the skill?
  • Sequencing: In what order should you learn the blocks?
  • Stakes: How do you set up stakes to create real consequences and guarantee you follow the program?

Hence, learning providers will not only offer the infrastructure and environment but also curate the sources of knowledge and any subskills necessary.

Learning providers as curators and creators

Both universities and learning platforms will not function as a single source of knowledge but rather filter content and resources for learners to design the best learning paths.

Viriti Saraf, Teach for America alumna and founder of K20 educators, explains in an interview:

“Universities are curators of content. I had to go through Harvard; I couldn’t just go straight to a professor. In the future, Harvard could still be curating classes of professors, but it’s not Harvard’s intellectual property.”

Studytube, a company that recently secured $30m funding, utilizes the same concept of decentralized knowledge. Unlike Coursera or Skillshare, Studytube doesn’t believe one provider has the perfect collection of relevant courses. Instead, Studytube mix and matches several course libraries to meet the learners’ needs.

A more junior company striving in a similar direction is Beeline. When I talked with Peter Turner and his team, I was excited to hear they’re utilizing learning science to help learners take the direct path to their learning goals.

Beelines are built by aggregating multiple learning sources (blogs, videos, images, online courses, audio etc.) into one consolidated location, with supplementary note-taking and learning tool functionality.

“What lies ahead is a growing recognition that the workforce can be remote, productive, and easily skilled if the corporation can articulate what skills they are targeting.”

— Lee Rubenstein, VP of Business Development at EdX

2) The evolution of Learning Management Systems

A Learning Management System (LMS) is a software or web-based app to implement, plan, and access learning processes. Universities, schools, corporates, and many other learning providers use it.

Features often include learning assessment, user feedback, course management, and delivery. If you recently studied at a university, you’ve likely used one of the biggest providers: Moodle, Canvas, or Blackboard.

LMS Market Share for US & Canadian Higher Ed Institutions (Source: PhilonEdTech).

In the next six years, the LMS segment is expected to dominate the eLearning market. Analysts predict LMS will account for a market share of 40.1% by the end of 2031.

How Learning Management Systems will change in the future

Predictions vary but revolve around four trends:

  1. AI-powered LMS that predict the user’s next steps and include personalized eLearning content, curriculum automation, real-time feedback, and improved learning outcomes.
  2. A shift from LMS to LXP (Learning Experience Platform), a learner-focused software, solves the shortcomings of LMS. LXP incorporate learner-led content creation and curation, gamification, customized learning paths, chatbots, and integrations to other learning platforms such as Coursera or Dawrat.
  3. Gamification integration through leaderboards, badges, and other incentive systems to improve retention rates, collaboration, and learner motivation.
  4. Enhanced integration of learning analytics such as course completion rates, learner progress, feedback, and knowledge retention, to help students reach their learning goals.

The biggest challenge for LMS and EdTech providers

Many EdTech companies don’t know whether what they’re doing is effective. And neither know learners.

eLearning providers have no incentive to conduct independent third-party efficacy research, as it might harm their business (similar incentive asymmetries exist for digital health applications).

“The market is completely opaque,” explains Sierra Noakes, project director of Digital Promise, in an interview with EdSurge. The eLearning market will need a global certification to certify products’ efficacy.

Enter learning sciences.

The science of learning combines social and cognitive psychology, brain research, and neuroscience. Integrating research in product development would create a win-win situation for providers and learners, as research by Digital Promise reveals:

“We heard resoundingly that the use of learning sciences research enables EdTech tools to more clearly name the expected impact on learning and more easily evaluate the product’s impact on learning.”


3) The integration of immersive technologies

Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) will shape future learning environments.

VR is a fully computer-generated environment through which you can immerse yourself in artificially constructed realities. The technology allows learners to get hands-on experience and move through different scenarios.

In contrast to VR, AR works like Pokémon GO. You are enriching the real world in front of you with new objects, for example, through your smartphone.

Market analysts forecast a rapid expenditure growth on AR and VR in education, from $1.8 Billion in 2018 to $12.6 Billion in 2025.

Forecasted growth in advanced technology expenditure in global education (2018–2025) Source: EdTechX Europe

Since October 2021, when Zuckerberg introduced the Metaverse, learning providers have explored how learning can become more immersive and interactive.

Nikhil Kaitwade from Future Market Insights writes:

“Facebook Reality labs will be investing $150m for educational programs to improvise training and tech development. The company is partnering with Coursera and EdX for leveraging learning by offering the Spark AR curriculum of META that will use virtual reality and augmentation.”

Microsoft launched Microsoft Mesh, a mixed reality platform for digital collaboration. Through Holoportation, you can project yourself as your photorealistic self and move through a fluid, digital reality.

You can train together anywhere.

But how exactly will technologies like VR and AR shape future learning environments?

“You could learn to do firefighting, skiing, etc from anywhere/time in the world and in a safe way”

— Gisel Armando CTO of Anything World

How Virtual Reality (VR) will change learning

A very likely application of VR for learning is guided simulations. They offer new ways of delivering scenario-based learning experiences.

Workers can practice in a risk-free environment close to the real scenario. Use cases include sales training, public speaking, surgery training, and much more.

Talespin is an example of a well-funded, following-worthy company that is developing immersive learning content. A short video shows what this currently looks like:

Source: Talespin Example: develop crucial softs skills through role-play with virtual human characters.

Immersive VR experiences are exhilarating for learners with disabilities or special needs as it allows them to explore situations and worlds that might otherwise be inaccessible.

How Augmented Reality (AR) will change learning

AR can be applied in kindergarten, schools settings, and corporate training environments.

In essence, AR content enriches the physical learning experience. Consider these examples, which likely will further improve their features:

  • Google Expeditions allows learners to explore 3D nature phenomena.
  • NASA’s Sidekick helps astronauts practice real-case scenarios.
  • SkyView creates overlays for the night sky that allows learners to explore the universe and identify stars, planets, and satellites.
  • NeoBear develops AR learning toys and materials for children.
Interactive AR 3D flashcards for children by NeoBear. (Source: NeoBear)

In Conclusion

We’re still at the beginning of a global e-learning revolution. The change will happen gradually, and based on what I’ve read for my research, this is what the future of eLearning might look like:

Stage Zero (present)

While digital usage is expected to drop post-pandemic, a hybrid education model will likely remain. Video-based learning has not reached its peak yet (people will stream 3 trillion minutes of video content each month). We’ll continue learning through ineffective online lectures, but cohort-based courses will see broader adaption.

Stage One (2024)

Further development of virtual classrooms that include enhanced features for online whiteboards, streaming opportunities, and interactive videos and presentations. Most LMS incorporate learning analytics. A global coalition for independent efficacy certification for eLearning products emerges.

Stage Two (2026)

Broader application of immersive technologies. AR will be adopted faster than VR, as it can be accessed through mobile devices. Active, scenario-based learning in reality like environments will become the new norm for corporate training.

Stage Three (2030)

From Web3 to Ed3. Ed1 was about knowledge transfer through traditional institutions. Ed2 about centralized learning platforms such as Udemy or Coursera. Ed3 will enable individuals to learn decentralized with IP ownership, knowledge validation through wallets, and blockchain credentials.

And while designing effective learning experiences will remain a key challenge, the future of education and learning looks exciting. Hopefully, it will contribute to high-quality education that sets up all children and learners to thrive.


Sign up for my free weekly Learn Letter to receive inspiring, science-based content around education and the future of learning.

Filed Under: 🧱Transforming Education Tagged With: edtech, education, elearning, learning

How MasterClass Makes 9-Figure Revenues Without Really Selling Mastery

February 23, 2021 by Eva Keiffenheim


Lessons from EdTech founder David Rogier.

Photo by Andrea Piacquadio from Pexels

If you look at MasterClass from a business perspective, it’s a clear success story.

In 2015 David Rogier founded the company. Five years later, he closed a Series E financing round with a post-money valuation of $500M to $1B. In a recent interview, Rogier said MasterClass is on the path to an IPO.

In short: MasterClass is one of the few emerging unicorns in EdTech.

Yet, if you look at the education platform from a learner’s perspective, its success story is less clear. After all, mastery of complex skills and processes is the result of deliberate practice.

Michaelangelo, the painter of 5,000 square feet in the Sistine Chapel, once wrote:

“If people knew how hard I worked to get my mastery, it wouldn’t seem so wonderful after all.”


MasterClass Isn’t About Mastery

In December, a friend asked whether I’d share a 2-for-1 subscription. I read on their website, ‘MasterClass delivers a world-class online learning experience.’

I said yes. $90 a year for learning from world-class performers like James Patterson, Sara Blakely, and Yotam Ottolenghi seemed like an incredible deal.

The two-sided business model

Customers pay for accessing pre-recorded courses, and instructors get paid for recording them. The value proposition: “Getting the best in the world to teach and share and make it a price point that is affordable.”

From the consumer side, it works like Netflix — a streaming platform with a subscription model. For $180 per year, consumers have access to all classes.

Instructors receive a one-time payment and a revenue cut. In 2017, a source reported MasterClass teachers get at least $100,000 per course plus a 30% revenue cut. In 2018, Bloomberg wrote instructors get a guaranteed sum, plus up to a 25% cut. However, in a later interview, Rogier shared contracts vary by individuals.

Hence MasterClass’s key activities are:

  • Recruiting world-class talent and turning them into instructors.
  • Recording Hollywood-like videos.
  • Providing and maintaining the streaming platform and an online community thread.
  • Marketing activities to win paying customers.

What MasterClass got wrong about learning

According to Rogier, instructors design their classes. But education researchers agree: Masters might not be the best teachers. Likely, they’re beginners when it comes to instructional design and the science of learning.

Most MasterClasses build on the thesis that online, low-touch courses are for skill-building. But our brains don’t work like recording devices. We don’t absorb information and knowledge by consuming content. Instead, learning is at least a three-step process — we acquire, encode, and retrieve.

I won’t bore you with the specifics. Barbara Oakley, Roediger, et al., and Lieberman have done a prolific job explaining how we learn and remember. But as a simplified rule of thumb:

“Learning that’s easy is like writing in sand, here today and gone tomorrow. Learning is deeper and more durable when it’s effortful.”

Learning through passive content consumption isn’t truly effortful.

How humans acquire mastery

Anders Ericsson, author of ‘Peak’ studied high performing-individuals and found that the best among them spent thousands of hours practicing in solitary, deliberate practice. Mastery is a product of practice quantity and quality.

Think about frequent fliers. Before every start, they watch a video of a flight attendant putting on the life vest. But as this study shows, actually putting on the inflatable life vest a single time would be more valuable than repeatedly watching another person doing it.

You acquire true mastery by performing the procedure yourself. MasterClass instructors have surely not gotten where they are by sitting on the couch, watching videos about their craft.

The author of ‘Ultralearnering’ calls this principle directness. It is essential for mastering any skill.

Yet, with a few exceptions, classes are as far away from direct practice as they can get. It’s like someone studying the guitar but not holding a guitar — just looking at videos of how to play the guitar.

Don’t get me wrong; I like MasterClass. With its tips and anecdotes, it inspires millions of people to become lifelong learners. But as a learning expert, I cry when I read on the website of an emerging EdTech Unicorn that they offer a ‘world-class online learning experience.’

Because they don’t.


Key Entrepreneurship Lessons

When you spend hours researching MasterClass, you can’t help but admire founder and CEO David Rogier. His humble and authentic stories make him one of the most sympathetic founders I’ve listened to.

Here’s what we can learn from his entrepreneurial journey.

#1 Build something you can be proud of even if it fails

Rogier was raised in part by his grandmother, a Holocaust survivor. When he was at her house as an 8-year-old, she told a story that changed him forever.

When his grandma fled to the States, her dream was to become a doctor. She sent applications to 25 medical schools — and got 25 rejections. When calling the deans to ask why they rejected her, all hang-up except for one, who said:

“You have three strikes against you:
You’re a woman. You’re an immigrant. You’re Jewish.”

She reapplied the next year. One school accepted her. Ultimately, she became a doctor. Here’s her lesson she shared with 8-year-old Rogier:

“Education is the only thing someone can’t take from you”

When Rogier graduated from Stanford Business School, he had so many ideas about starting up. He couldn’t decide. The advice that ultimately helped him decide was to pick something that, even if it fails, you’re gonna be proud of.

For Rogier, this meant building a product in education. He shared in an interview about his grandma’s story: “It’s what propelled me to create MasterClass, and to try to democratize mastery.”

So if there’s a lesson here for future entrepreneurs, it’s this: Don’t create a product based on market growth. Instead, build something you can be proud of, even if it fails.

#2 Don’t stop when people say your idea is unachievable

In 2014, Rogier told a former classmate about his MasterClass idea. The friend said it would be too difficult to get the instructors to sign up, especially in the beginning. How can you possibly attract world-class masters without having an existing customer base?

His friend was surprised Rogier presented the signed letters of world-class masters like Serena Williams. Yet, this journey wasn’t predestined.

Signing the best in the world wasn’t easy. He cold-called and e-mailed hundreds of masters in their craft. He says years went by without getting any yes.

Recruiting the first instructors was challenging, but Rogier says he rejects nine out of 10 people who want to become instructors.

Undoubtedly as a Stanford Graduate with an initial seed funding helped gave him credibility. Yet, he has one of the most important traits of founders: resilience.

#3 Reach out to people who can help you

Rogier decided he wanted to do something with education. Yet, he wasn’t sure what exactly this would be.

As a result, he posted ads on Craigslist to pay people $10 an hour to talk about their educational experiences. He asked his interview partners questions like:

  • Who did you learn the most from?
  • Which topics would you have loved to study more?
  • What things do you want to learn now? And how do you want to learn them?

These initial conversations helped him sharpen his vision. Plus, when he recorded the first videos, they looked like crap.

So Rogier reached out to a professor from his grad school who won two Oscars for filming. His professor offered to film the videos, and that’s how the courses started looking like high-class Hollywood movies.

Of course, most people don’t have Oscar winners in their direct network. Yet, asking for help when things don’t go your way certainly increases the chances of reaching the ultimate goal.


In Conclusion

Rogier said learning doesn’t have to be boring, and it doesn’t have to involve a classroom. And it’s true: When done right, education can be entertaining and online.

MasterClass managed to bring the quality of Netflix to the $100 billion e-learning industry. Yet, it failed to bring along state-of-art learning science.

Polished videos don’t lead to mastery. What matters more than lighting and sound are whether consumers really learn new skills. And without using evidence-based techniques for learning, this goal is out of reach.

If you want to feel inspired and listen to master’s success stories, go ahead and subscribe to MasterClass.

If you, however, want to achieve mastery, take courses that really help you learn new skills. Look out for features like:

  • Offering real-time feedback on learning progress. 
    (And no, not like MasterClass with collecting product feedback channel).
  • Giving direct access to instructors. 
    (And again, no, not like MasterClass offering contests to get a 1:1 in exchange for giving the instructors feedback).
  • Having assignments that are directly linked to your desired skill.
  • Including structured access to a fellow community.
  • Deploying spaced repetition features.
  • Using testing as a tool.

Whatever you choose, keep education researcher Terry Doyle’s words in mind who said:

“The one who does the work does the learning.”


Are you a life-long learner? Join my E-Mail List and check out how the Feynman technique can help you remember everything you read.

Filed Under: 🧱Transforming Education Tagged With: edtech, oped

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